Why Would Stephen Harper Derail NAFTA Talks?

Let’s be clear about this: we all know Donald Trump really knows nothing about Canada’s dairy board program.

Also, this small slice of economic activity is worth about $2-$3 billion dollars per year compared to the nearly $600 BILLION PER YEAR in trade between the two countries.

More than 70%of American states have ‘Canada’ as their first trading partner.

So why does dairy matter and why would the President of the US risk destroying this deal?

Oil.

Let’s face it: things haven’t gone well for the Liberals since they bought out the Kinder-Morgan pipeline.

But that’s precisely the way Stephen Harper wanted things to evolve.

He’s playing the long game. The Trudeau Liberals are still reacting.

We know that Harper has been in discussions with Trump and his economic team and we know that Harper has a history of despising the various control boards in Canada, to the point where he was 100% ok with selling off the Wheat Board to a Saudi Arabian investor as opposed to keeping control in Canada.

Last fall, he accused the Liberal government of ‘napping on NAFTA’, giving the Trump regime all the ammunition they need to come out on top with negotiations on NAFTA.

But why?

I had an epiphany the other day and it all comes back to the simple idea that Stephen Harper was defeated in the last election but he hasn’t conceded and thinks he’s still in charge.

In fact, I believe he’s trying to lay the groundwork for a Conservative victory in 2019.

On a broad level, the failure to close a deal with the US will surely shake the confidence of the Liberal party and break the support that their base might have.

But IF the Liberals are able to manage their way through the mines laid by Stephen Harper as they advance towards the NAFTA finish line, the deal breaker will be the control boards, which we all know, Stephen Harper loathes.

If the Liberals give in on the pressure to remove or reduce the influence of the dairy board, they will surely lose any support they might have gained in the last election in RURAL ridings.

There are easily enough rural ridings to tip the scales in the federal election. In the previous election, the Liberals won roughly 1/3rd of all rural ridings. Numbers vary in terms of estimating the actual number of rural ridings, but this could translate to as many as 40 to 50 seats.

In 2015, it may not have been enough to rattle the cages of the Trudeau, Part II, but it could be devastating to the party in 2019 as they scramble to recover from their failure to secure a deal OR failure to act on behalf of Canadian farmers and dairy producers.

Either way, Harper has set things up so the Trudeau government will be f*cked in the 2019 election.

Again, why?

I don’t think it has anything to do with NAFTA, but I do believe it has everything to do with returning Canadian policy to an ‘oil friendly political landscape’.

Again, it’s all about the oil.

I can’t imagine being so obsessed with something so much that you’d sell out your own country.